The global stock market evaluates the risks of trade wars

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After initial attempts of growth of risk assets again retreat, while the European stock markets held in positive territory. Meanwhile, us futures have already reached negative territory, the dollar and yen are gaining momentum in Forex, and gold retreated from its early lows and returned to their original positions.
The current situation on world markets confirms that investors remained in suspense, fearing a fresh portion of negative news from the trade front. If such is not forthcoming, the markets will be traded relatively stable, but full-fledged and confident return of interest to the risk of speech does not go yet.
The Russian market opened higher, but after the initial breakthrough leading indices decreased points, including the lack of bullish signals from oil market. Investors quite calmly reacted to the increase in Russia’s rating by Fitch from BBB – to BBB with a stable Outlook, partly because the decision has already been taken into account in the quotations. In addition, the basic tone of all areas, including Russian, are now asking events on the trade front.
On the past weekend has been conflicting comments on this subject. Trump has hinted that guarantees the resumption of negotiations in September. This is forcing investors to exercise caution and to refrain from self purchases of risky assets. Oils in fire have added Goldman, who pointed to the growing risk of a US recession due to trade conflict with China.
Also today, there were reports that Beijing will soon begin to sell us debt as a last resort. Amid these speculations, the rally in the segment of higher-yielding assets, including the indices, now to be expected. And new attempts of growth can be replaced by profit-taking at more attractive levels.
Arseniy Dadashev,
Academy of management Finance and investment