The forecast for the ruble for a week
18 September expected decision of the fed on the rate, and 12E scheduled meeting of the European Central Bank. As you know, now the fed is holding a series of rate cuts, and ECB promises to follow colleagues. Such actions are intended to restore growth rates to normal values.
At the same time, the weakening of the national currency – and indeed any market reaction to these decisions – is unlikely to be vibrant and strong. As in the case with the Bank of Russia, a news is already “worked out” they talk too much and write, but because investors have become accustomed to the potential softening of rhetoric of the world Bank and laid it in quotes.
Against this background, the Russian currency is able to obtain additional support for growth. In addition, several factors now play into the hands of Russian ruble pairs. This and a weakening dollar on the world stage in the light of trade wars (even despite the positive messages about the October negotiations), and the tense stability of the oil price above $60 per barrel.
In General, given the declines in Europe and the U.S., the Russian currency is attractive enough for investors. Even after lowering rates by 0.25%, its value of 7% still remains above the rate of inflation.
Most likely, in the coming days, the ruble will be traded around 66-66,50, a EURRUB about 72-72,50.
Until the end of the year scheduled two more meetings of the Central Bank. One of them will be held October 25 and another on December 13.
On Friday, the regulator said that the possibility of further reduction of the key rate on one of the next meetings of the Board of Directors. However, there was a feeling that while the ruble more dependent on the situation on the global market, rather than from the national news.
The material is provided,