The fed – another risk factor for the ruble

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The ruble slowed down, but not recover in a hurry. Players are still cautious look at the Russian currency, fearing the manifestation of new risks from the outside. And the dollar, which seems intent to reverse the bearish trend, only adds fuel to the fire.
The triumphant return of the dollar bulls had very inappropriately for “Russians”, which “came under fire” from Western sanctions, which can still grow. The outer film coupled with the ascent of the dollar did not leave the ruble is likely to rise in response to the rise in oil prices.
And the dollar factor may continue to inhibit improvement in the health of our currency. And it is not only in the recent growth of yield of US bonds, although this week the driver noticeably increased force “American”.
US inflation is accelerating and closer to your goal. Conditions in the labour market have tightened considerably. So, the fed could reconsider the pace of policy tightening, especially as a number of officials of the regulator for fear of overheating. For ruble the prospect of more aggressive fed rate hike – long-term negative factor, which is not yet incorporated in the price.
So, even with a further decline of tensions on the foreign policy front and the lack of new sanctions from Europe, the ruble will experience difficulties with recovery in the foreseeable future and a longer-term horizon.
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Roman Blinov,
Head of analytical Department,
“International financial center”