The fate of the Euro in 2019 will determine France, Germany and Italy

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Past 2018 was not the best year for the single currency. On 25 December, the Euro fell against the U.S. dollar by 5.4%, to 1,1399. Brexit, a fourfold increase in rates of the fed and trade wars had a negative impact on the global currency market.
Also the position of the European currency is largely dependent on the situation in the EU. Political or economic problems in one country caused an increase of yield of 10-year bonds and the depreciation of the Euro. These all factors will have an impact in 2019. The resolution of the problems in France and Italy will have a positive impact on the Euro.
Given that market participants in the second half of 2019 expect from the ECB’s first rate hike and slowing down of the rate hike cycle by the us regulator, the Euro will have a good opportunity to regain losses incurred in 2018.
In favor of growth are technical factors. On the monthly chart, the Euro/dollar bounced on the 61.8% growth for 2017. Based on cyclical analysis of the Euro/dollar is expected to recover to 1,2373 by June 1. From June there will be drop to the end of the year. I believe that 2019 will be something similar to the year 2016.
If we talk about the value of the Euro in 2019, the European currency is largely dependent on the situation in the EU. Political or economic problems in one country entails a drop in the Euro on the world market.
Experts predict: the political influence on quotations of the Euro/dollar in 2019 will be, as ever, much. If the us dollar will be the master of foreign policy decisions and actions taken by the Federal reserve system of the United States, the fate of the Euro will determine the situation of the leading European countries — France, Germany, Italy.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst of information and analytical center,
Alpari