The exchange rate will continue to rise against dollar in July

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On Monday, the ruble opened up a gap, reflecting the widespread growth in risk assets and the resumption of positive dynamics in the oil market. Thus, at the start of the session, the dollar went under the mark of 63 RUB, again trying to win.
The pressure on the pair limits the demand for the USD increased after meeting trump and si. Dealers the two countries agreed to resume trade negotiations, which was perceived by market participants as a signal to reduce economic risks, and thus less aggressive reduction of interest rates by the fed.
In the short term the us dollar, apparently, will continue to mark around RUB 63 until, while in the financial markets or in commodity segment will not happen significant changes, which will push the pair in either direction. Dialogue Putin and trump investors have assessed as neutral, though in General the fact of the meeting of the two presidents is having some beneficial impact on Russian assets.
Speaking about the forecast of the movement of the ruble in July, his mood will depend on a number of factors, including oil, which could strengthen the influence on the Russian currency due to the sectoral developments. That group OPEC+ will extend the deal, there is no doubt. At this transparently hinted the leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia in the framework of the last summit. This should support the market and at least prevent a deeper slump of prices on the background of continuing growth in activity in the shale deposits of the United States.
Also of considerable importance will be the sanctions rhetoric of the West against Moscow – renew is able to undermine the position of domestic assets, particularly because they overbought. In General during the month, not excluded the volatility spikes, but most of the time, the pair will likely hold in the range 62,50-64 rubles, increasing downside risks for the ruble.
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Gennady Nikolaev
Expert
Academy of management Finance and investment