The Euro: the Yield is the dollar
On Friday, November 2, trades in the EUR/USD pair ended lower. After the publication of data from the labor market in the U.S. customers lost the whole day profit. The number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the value for the previous month was revised upwards. The index of average hourly earnings on an annual basis reached a high of more than 9 years. The US unemployment rate remains at lowest level of 3.7%.
Positive vendors added the index of production orders in the United States and the growth of profitability of 10-year bonds in the United States. Their yield rose to the level of 3.22%.
On expectations of another rate hike in December, the Euro fell to 1,1372. According to the latest CME Group’s FedWatch, the likelihood of a U.S. rate hike in December is 77.5%. To PAROLES was 74.5%.
Published statistics in the U.S. session:
• The index of factory orders in September in the U.S. amounted to +0.7 per cent (the forecast was +0.4%, the previous value of +2.6%).
• Employment change in Canada in October was +11.2 thousand (forecast was +25.0 thousand, the previous value — +63.3 thousand).
• The unemployment rate in Canada for October was 5.8% (consensus: 5.9%, the previous value of 5.9%).
• Trade balance in the US in September in billions of dollars amounted to -54,0 (-53,6 was forecast, the previous value revised to -53.2 -53.3).
• Number of new jobs in the United States in October amounted to 250 thousand (the forecast was 190 thousand, the previous value revised to 134 thousand to 118 thousand).
• The US unemployment rate for October was 3.7% (forecast was 3.7%, the previous value of 3.7%).
• The index of average hourly earnings in the U.S. in October was up 0.2% (consensus: +0.3%, the previous value of +0.3 percent).
Planned stats (GMT+3):
• At 12:30 UK will release PMI services for October.
• At 16:10 speech by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz.
• At 17:45 in the United States will release PMI services for October, 18:00 — index of the ISM non-manufacturing for October.
On technical analysis with high 1,1456 Euro fell to 67 degrees. This is about 50% of the upside movement with 1,1302 to 1,1456. Report on the labor market came out. You can forget about it for a month. You can even forget that it was Friday, and its price fell by 70 points.
At the time of writing the Euro is worth 1,1390. Given that Europe is no news, on Monday waiting for recovery rates to 1,1422.
In the analysis of similar movements with the last week do predict that when Friday the failure is likely to completely block the fall. Otherwise, the sellers took the course to the 1.1330 area.