The Euro: the Buyers tried to turn the tide, but to no avail
Tuesday, 30 October, the Euro closed lower. Buyers twice tried to reverse the situation, but to no avail. The Euro fell against the dollar to $1,1341. The weakening of the single currency contributed to several factors:
1. The Euro remains under pressure because of the uncertainty around Italy. Amid weak spending in Italy for the quarter increased yield of Italian bonds. The difference with the yield of similar German securities rose to 300 points. With the new draft budget is silence.
2. The U.S. authorities are ready to impose tariffs on the remaining imports from China by early December, if the new trade agreement will not be reached. About Donald trump said in his Twitter. The yield on 10-year bonds in the US jumped up. The dollar strengthened across the market.
The reversal formation has not worked. External background was stronger technical signals. The price returned to a minimum of 26 October. At the time of writing the Euro is worth $1.1340 for.
In the Asian session, the USD is mixed to its competitors. In the black traded the franc and the pound, the rest were negative. Today the attention of traders will focus on retail sales in Germany and inflation in the Eurozone. If stocks will not fall, then their attention will switch to the boe meeting (Thursday) and review of the labor market in the US (Friday). The market will begin training for these events.
What to expect today?
Price “lying on the support.” Considering the external factors and the General strengthening of the dollar against the background of rising yields on 10-year us bonds, according to the forecast, I expect the fall of the Euro/dollar to 90 ° ($1,1309) through a pullback to the $1,1355.
$1,1365 for me is the control point. Now Lb is around $1,1371. Given the time of rollback, the line will meet the price of $1,1365. If it is broken, the prognosis today is not going to work. 45-degrees is at the top of the channel, which is built from the lows. It acts as a target for buyers if they will take $1,1365.
• 10:00 Germany has published data on the change of volume of retail trade for September.
• At 10:45 France published the consumer price index for October.
• At 12:00 Switzerland presented the expectations of Swiss investors, according to the ZEW and Credit Suisse for October.
• At 13:00 Euro zone released the consumer price index for October and announced a change in the unemployment rate for September.
• At 15:15 the U.S. will announce the change in the number employed by ADP in October.
• At 15:30 Canada will report on changes in GDP for August and will present the producer price index for September.
• At 16:45 in the US, we expect the index of purchasing managers in Chicago in October.
• At 17:30 US Department of energy will report the change in oil reserves.
Fig. 1. Hourly chart EUR/USD