The Euro begins October under pressure

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Euro/dollar starts the October lows of last week. Basic trades in Monday afternoon go about 1,1595.
As shown by statistics, Americans are spending in August rose 0.3% m/m, as expected, while revenues were weaker than forecasts, and expanded only by 0.3% month-on-month comparison with the expectations of growth by 0.4%. This somewhat tempered the market’s optimism in relation to the U.S. dollar.
Friday came and the data on business activity in the manufacturing segment of Chicago in September. The indicator went down to 60,4 points in anticipation of a decline to 62.3. August statistics showed a value of 63.6 points. Another “stab in the back” for the dollar was the final calculation of the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in September. The index dropped to 100.1 points against the previous value of 100,8 and forecast of 100.5 points. In aggregate, this is not allowed grinbek to rise further in the currency arena, but also the explicit reason for the sale of the dollar too.
In the main currency pair market attention is still focused on what is happening in Italy, where there is still no clear decision on the issue of the budget.
This week will be a lot important for the Euro/dollar macroeconomic statistics. The Eurozone will release a report on retail sales, the U.S. will release data on factory orders. You also need to pay attention at the start of the summit of Ministers of Finance and economy of the European Union. In addition, a speech will be the head of the Federal reserve system Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell Hayden), and repeatedly.
From the point of view of technical analysis in the dynamics of the EURUSD is to provide a medium-term situation. The fact is that due to the momentum of the decline last week, the market was able to overcome the support line of the previous trend growth. This situation may suggest further development of the downward momentum in the long-term downward trend. The next significant purpose of momentum is to consider the current annual minimum.
The short-term situation 1-hour chart shows the beginning of a correction phase after the completion of the downward momentum. The market formed a support level at 1,1575. New microimpulse growth tends towards the resistance line of the correction corridor – level 1,1635. The breakdown of this resistance will allow the pair to rise to the level of 1,1697. The market will be able to continue development of the downtrend after the breakout of the support at 1,1575. The nearest purpose of decrease will mark 1,1520.
Курс евро начинает октябрь под давлением
Dmitry Gurkovsky,
Senior analyst,