The dynamics of the ruble in the power of oil

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Thursday, June 21, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased by 2 kopecks (+0,04%) to RUB 63,71, the Euro rate – on 21 kopecks (+0,29%), to RUB of 73.92 Trading volume in the pair dollar/ruble amounted to $3.7 billion (of 19.35%), and Euro/ruble – RUB 374.4 million euros (+10,84%).
The Bank of Russia from June 22 to set the official US dollar rate to ruble at the level of 63,7673 RUB that above the previous close 16.98 COP. the Official Euro to rouble was fixed at RUB 73,6871 compared to the previous value rate increased by 7.53 COP.
Thursday ruble pair was moving without the expressed dynamics. The price of oil was trading in the negative region, so the opening of the Moscow exchange ruble has failed greatly strengthened against foreign currencies. Oil prices decreased by 2%. The fall of the ruble against the dollar amounted to 0,04%, and the Euro – 0,29%. It is partly from a collapse kept the tax period.
At the evening auction of the U.S. currency itself came under pressure after weak US and falling us yields. In the end, the pair dollar/ruble ended the day at the level 63,71 RUB, EUR/RUB – at the level of 73.92 RUB.
Friday, 22 June, Brent crude has risen in price for 1,22%, to $of 73.92 per barrel. Rather, the market reacted to the news from the OPEC meeting. The price of black gold is under pressure as market participants expect OPEC decision to increase oil production by 1 million barrels.
Morning growth of oil prices clearly have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate dynamics in the first half of trading. The dollar may open at the level 63,42 Euro – 73,60 RUB Tax period, which peaks in June 25, is on the side of buyers of the Russian currency, so on Friday its strong attenuation is expected. As for the near term, I believe that more factors on the side of weakening of the ruble.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari