The dollar will rise next week
Russian market will open with growth due to a rise of 0.2% to 1.2% futures on global equity indices and MSCI emerging markets. Investors reacted positively to the softening of rhetoric of the USA on trade duties on Chinese goods and the EU’s decision to limit the influx of migrants to the EU. This position is actively promoted in Italy, which led to a decrease in the yield curve of Italian government bonds.
So, 10-year bonds fell 15 b.p. to 2.7% for the day. We believe that against this background the spread between German and Italian government bonds will continue narrowing. The last day of the II quarter the markets closed with growth. However, next week will be published key data on the labor market in the US and PMI in the manufacturing sector from ISM. The consensus forecast indicates a stable results that gives reason to play against the ruble.