The dollar will continue to rise next week, geopolitics will weaken the ruble

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Stock Markets Group – dollar exchange Rate after the elections in Russia will resume growth, which was suspended before the vote. On the one hand, experts note that the lack of alternatives to the current President for another six years gives some stability. But political tensions around Russia makes this period is favorable for the growth of the dollar against the ruble.

The dollar rate will increase after March 19

The first factor – the oil. Oil less supports the growth of the Russian economy and foreign currency earnings is reduced. The same thing happens with the gas sector. The recent decision of the Stockholm arbitration to compensate Ukraine 4.63 billion, hit not only the image of the gas monopoly OJSC “Gazprom”, but also on the investment attractiveness of the ruble, increasing the dollar.
Investors are well aware that the dependence of the Russian economy from the oil revenues is the main risk in such trials. Therefore, the dollar in recent weeks has a strong pressure on the Russian currency.
The second factor – the British. The diplomatic scandal that erupted between Britain and Russia over poisoning of ex-GRU Colonel Sergei Skripal and his daughter was the cause of the panic of the oligarchs from the approximation of the current Russian President. After all, they hate the West so that their children like to study in English schools and the officials themselves prefer to buy a property anywhere in London’s Knightsbridge or Kensington.
In London, it is understood and gently hinted at the possibility to make the life and stay of the Russian rich men in the capital uncomfortable and vain.
23 diplomat Russia will be expelled from the Kingdom, ordinary citizens hardly hurt, but many Russian oligarchs, according to experts has “shifted in his chair,” and began to think of escape routes and emergency sale of real estate, if they begin to drive from London.
The recent statements of British officials indicate that the lords are tired of the Kremlin elimination of undesirable persons on the territory of the country. In response, Russia did the same thing, and gave a week to the expulsion of British diplomatic representatives.
However, this is all that the Kremlin may be in this situation, because going on, it will jeopardize billions of dollars of those who support the current government, and this has a negative impact on the stability inside Russia.
The third factor is an American. The Federal reserve resumed raising interest rates, and intends to go as far as possible the U.S. economy.
In the current environment trump is one of the few presidents who takes completely independent decisions. Yes, they look not always adequate, but the fact that it acts solely in their interests is clear. Take the recent dismissal of Rex Tillerson to the post of Head of the US state Department. It all happened quickly and smoothly, as considered necessary by the President.
Such rearrangements are not always hurt the dollar and very often support the us currency.
Thus, the hopes of many that the dollar after March 19 will be stable or fall, is questionable. On the contrary, the reality will continue to put pressure on the ruble and make it cheaper against a basket of world currencies including the dollar.
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Irina Sverdlova,
Senior analyst,
Stock Markets Group™