The dollar will continue to advance on the Russian currency
After timid attempts to recover last week, the ruble started a new trading five-day week with the retreat, declining against the dollar and the Euro with an eye on the negative dynamics of oil. In the coming days, “Russian” will be affected by a number of factors and may show a rather volatile trend.
Calm on the geopolitical front, brought the ruble and the Russian market overall, some relief. But this is not enough to determine a stable demand for our currency, which continues to behave cautiously. Meanwhile, one of the main obstacles to improve well-being “wooden” serve the renewal of the interventions of the Central Bank. And purchases are superimposed on large-scale external debt, which is five times January’s volume.
Because of these two factors support the tax period is minimized. In addition, the dollar continues to rise, podpityvaemyh growth yields on 10-year government bonds. Compounding the situation, the profit fixing in the oil market, where after taking off to new highs for the last week gradually recede within the framework of technical correction.
If in the coming days, the situation with the us currency and oil will not change the ruble threatened by new losses, despite the upcoming peak of tax payments. However, there is a chance that the company stocked up liquidity in advance, when the ruble is even cheaper. If so, the pressure will be limited.
In any case, downside risks for the Russian currency remain, and if “American” will continue to advance under the influence of, for example, the optimistic statements of fed officials, the ruble will not be able to attract buyers in the short term.
Head of analytical Department,
“International financial center”