The dollar: the global currency market continues chaos

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On the global currency market chaos continues: periods of sudden and often does not particularly unmotivated growth of the dollar against all currencies except the Japanese yen, replaced by an equally unpredictable episodes of calm. It is, first and foremost, indicates the presence of a large stress to the players, the causes of which lie in a “nuclear” combination of monetary policy tightening by the Fed and deepening of the negative effects of trade wars waged by the administration of Donald trump.
As you know, China continues to be a net seller of US Treasury bonds, and also completely refused to import American oil. In turn, it is noticeable that, and the White house in this regard too nervous, because the tactics of arm-twisting, has worked flawlessly in respect to Mexico and Canada not yet shown any progress in relation to the main economic enemy of the US – China.
The ruble after yesterday’s drawdown to 67 per dollar – the lowest since September 17 of this year, when we fell synchronously with many emerging market currencies, and crude oil stood at $78 per barrel, not like now, in the neighborhood of $85 – speculative “string” involuntarily straightened, and the domestic currency has returned to levels 66,50+, which, however, can hardly be called significant strengthening.
Rather, we can only talk about the fact that the ruble for some time ceased to fall. Meanwhile, the DXY dollar Index today stands rooted to the spot at a high level of 95.55. This morning released data on the trade balance of another trade of the enemy of the USA – Germany – under which it has improved again to €17.2 billion in August, compared to €16.5 billion in July. Then the dollar strengthened nowhere without economic consequences in the form of damage to all plans trump.
Returning to the topic on the prospects of the ruble, if the Renaissance in the oil market will continue, and the Central Bank will refrain from the massive purchase of currency in the market (which, generally speaking, is inconsistent with the actively pushed by the Finance Ministry’s strategy of de-dollarization), then by mid-December, the ruble may rise to 64 to the dollar or so, and then begin the traditional annual Christmas rally in the dollar, which, in turn, will be replaced by rally in gold before the Chinese New year according to the Lunar calendar and the season of weddings in India.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
“International financial center”