The dollar starts the week with growth, political risks against ruble
Stock Markets Group – a New wave of political statements and accusations of Russia swept last week, the West is preparing to expel a number of diplomats on Monday, as a response to the poisoning of the former Colonel GRU in Britain. In these circumstances, the dollar can only increase growth by ignoring the low inflation rates of the Russian economy and the growth of oil.
The main event of last week was the decision of the Central Bank’s interest rate. As we wrote earlier, government best a high dollar and a cheap ruble to stimulate demand in the domestic market.
It is the opinion of experts was the reason that the regulator of the Russian Federation went on easing monetary policy.
“Annual inflation remains at a stable low level. Inflation expectations are gradually falling. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, annual inflation will be 3-4% at the end of 2018, and will be close to 4% in 2019”
Thus, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia took a decision to reduce the key rate by 25 basis points.
Given the reaction of the currency market it is safe to say that this decision was quite expected and did not affect the Russian ruble and the dollar. However, next week the situation may change and the psychological level of 60 rubles per dollar can be broken.
The dollar on March 26 will increase because of the policy
Political tensions between Europe and Russia continues to grow. It became known that on March 26, from Moscow will be revoked, EU Ambassador to Russia Markus Ederer. Further, the expulsion of diplomats from Russia will be held in 20 European Union countries.
According to The Times, States are ready to accede to the expulsion of diplomats from the country, than expected the President trump will report early next week.
Experts point out that this is unprecedented in recent decades, and while no one can predict how far will the confrontation between the West and Russia.
But one thing is for sure, this situation is unlikely to hush up the scandal, because in addition to the family Skrobala injured and two British police officers, that only exacerbates the position of the Russian Federation.
The actions of the U.S. Federal reserve tightening of monetary policy will also be strengthening for the dollar factor this week, and if after the rate hike last week, it was not particularly noticeable due to the rapid strengthening of oil, it is already Monday, the U.S. currency may show significant growth, given the stop prices for “black gold”.
OPEC does not know what to do in the future with the agreement and how to act in conditions of strong growth and activity of oil shale mining in the United States. The division of members of a cartel for those who are already tired to give up profits in the name of common interests and those who are willing to go to the end, only increases the risk and puts pressure on oil prices.
The decline in world demand for raw materials makes agreement on the reduction of oil production unattractive, especially amid the growth of exports of raw materials from those countries that do not want to participate in the promotion of world prices.
Thus, according to experts, the dollar is already Monday can get a new impetus to growth against the ruble. In the current situation, the political component will be affected more than the economy. Ruble investors will reduce the activity and to go into such protective assets like gold and the dollar.
15:00 MSK.,the dollar is 57.223 rubles, or +0.13%, the Euro has risen more and reached the level of 70.708 rubles, or 0.49%.
Stock Markets Group™