The dollar rises after fed decision, ruble falls
Dollar rises after fed decision to keep rate. The Ministry concerned about the growth of consumer loans. The Ministry of Finance failed auction of OFZ.
On the eve of the US Federal reserve kept rates unchanged in the range of 1.75-2%. This decision coincided with the expectations of market participants. The American regulator has maintained in their comments signals for a rate hike in September. We will remind that earlier the President of the United States Donald trump criticized the activities of the fed, saying that he was “not thrilled” by raising rates.
Meanwhile, the Ministry is very concerned about the growing debt load of the population. According to authorities in June, consumer credit rose by almost 16% yoy. At the same time, the growth of real salaries slowed to 7%. Concern is understandable, any economist will tell you that credit growth, without commensurate income growth, is one of the first signals of the future crisis. And we, for a moment, from the previous crisis did not come out yet.
On this background the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow stock exchange is around 63 rubles 10 kopecks, the Euro traded at 73 rubles 40 kopecks. The MICEX index is at the level of 2320 points, and oil quotations of mark Brent fell below 73 dollars per barrel. Bitcoins according to CoinMarketCap continues to trade in the area of 7700 dollars.
The ruble began the last month of summer with the reduction. Some market participants believe August is “cursed” Russian currency market during which the ruble is doomed to decline. But I must say that the current decrease is primarily due to the fact that investors have lost interest in auctions of the Ministry of Finance. On the eve of the proposed amount of 35 billion the Finance Ministry managed to realize a bit more 28. Investors had to offer a high enough discount to market price.
Earlier, we gave the recommendation to buy dollar/ruble in the range from 62 to 62.50 and continue to believe that the chances of strengthening of the American currency against the ruble is much more than likely to decline. So by the end of August early September, we may see a simultaneous breakthroughs until 65-66 rubles.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,