The dollar on the Forex market feels insecure

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Friday began the world with a positive attitude. Asian indices rose again, and Chinese shares continued their recovery, despite the threat of a breakdown of trade talks the US and China. Europe, too, could afford the upgrade at the start of the session, as in General, the interest risk is supported, although it remains fragile. The Russian market, following external background, and the resumption of growth in oil prices, continues to restore the positions. RTS adds more than 0.5%, while the index of Masuri increases by 0.4%.
The ruble opened up a gap, but slowly losing ground. Pair oscillates near the mark of 68 rubles., which is likely to remain in the midst of trading before the end of the day. The key event for Russian assets will be a meeting today the Bank of Russia. With high probability the BOJ will keep rates unchanged, but hinted at the possibility of its improvement, if necessary. In this scenario, the ruble is unlikely to show a noticeable reaction to the decision of the Central Bank, which is already incorporated in prices.
In Forex the dollar is not feeling very well and remains under pressure after yesterday’s sales, provoked by the weak data on American inflation. If today’s report on retail sales will not become a pretext for the rehabilitation of the currency, the expectations of players regarding the monetary policy of the fed will continue to weaken, that will be reflected in the dynamics of “American”, despite the fact that on a short term basis he already looks oversold.
Brent crude oil yesterday went under the mark of 78, but trying to shorten the distance to level 80, made earlier this week. Today, asset is trading slightly higher after this morning’s drawdown, in response to the fall of the ruble, as well as relying on a reduction in drilling activity in the United States, and the report will be later published by oilfield services company Baker Hughes.
Nathan Lambert
Head of research,
Global FX