The dollar may begin to decline because of the trade policy of the United States
The weakening of the dollar may be due to the continuation of the aggressive policy of Donald trump. At the moment the USA already have disputes with Europe, Canada, China and Mexico, but the head of the White house is not going to stop. According to the statements of trump, he is very pleased with the good relationship with Japanese leadership, but it does not hide that relations change, as soon as he tells Japan how much you need to pay. And will have to pay soon.
Trade wars can increase the burden on the American economy. The trade deficit increased by 9.5%, growth is happening for the past two months, and if the situation does not change, then GDP will start to fall.
The American dollar is very much showed itself in the course of the year, but may begin to lose ground in the continuation of the exchange of import duties. The trade deficit was us $ 50.1 billion. Given the risks in the U.S. economy, according to Goldman Sachs, the probability of a recession in 2018 is 15% and in 2019 — 30%.
About 70% of respondents expect recession in 2020. Model for JP Morgan based on the analysis of macroeconomic data 21% believe the recession may begin in 2019, and 50% expect it no earlier than 2020. Considering all possible options, market participants need to consider a few options of events and to have time to adjust to new information.
Larson & Holz