The dollar is under pressure from the ruble and oil prices

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Russian ruble in Thursday afternoon trading mixed in a basket of currencies. The US dollar is, to date, 56,65 RUB (-0,1%). The Euro is trading at 70,68 rubles (+0,1%). Official rates of the CBRF for tomorrow, February 16, 56,59 make up a RUB for the American currency and a 70.67 RUB for Euro. Both estimates revised down, 99 and 56 cents, respectively.
Oil prices today balance in the black, although it is recognized that the main hype has passed. A barrel of North sea Brent crude is now $64,4 (+0,06%). In published yesterday the report of the US Department of energy States that oil stocks last week, although increased, but was below expectations. Gasoline stocks, however, significantly decreased, distillate inventories partially expanded.
Now that the major emotions have receded, it is clear that the impression of this release is very ambiguous. The decline in gasoline stocks can be seen as a correction to past statistics, because that phase of the growing demand for gasoline and other fuels has not come early. Crude oil inventories continue to increase, which is a “bearish” signal for the sector of energy. The same “bearish” signal are and news of continuing growth in US production, now it is estimated at 10,271 million barrels per day (+0,2% over the week). In fact, of positive in this report for buyers – the market’s reaction to it.
The U.S. dollar is declining, but at the same time increasing the yield of the debt market and bonds. Market again like the ruble (lower) and OFZ (more), as well as Eurobonds. A temporary decline in activity, which was visible in government bonds, recovered, as this investment tool provides a fixed yield above the market average. Most likely, this trend will continue in the near future.
The ruble, however, has already implemented the entire oil support and stabiliziruemost in the previously tested range. The dollar today can be fixed within 56,55-57,25 rubles, and the Euro – the borders 70,55-71,45 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
At par