The dollar is rising and the question of its shutdown in the United States remains open
EUR/USD retreated on Friday and continues moderately lower today, 14 January. While in the main currency pair is analysed in the prices, the care of the capital markets against risks. This supports the dollar and “crushes” on stock indexes. In this inflation report, US investors are left unattended.
From the point of view of technical analysis the EURUSD is in a corrective medium-term uptrend. The pair is currently developing a local short-term downtrend after the rebound from the resistance line of the medium channel. On the 1-hour chart of the pair we can see that the quotes are testing the lower boundary of the current channel. If the support level on 1,1453 will allow the market to continue to decline to a projected support of 1.1350. It is also worth to consider the option of completion of the current downward movement and growth to the resistance line at the level of 1,1510. The breakdown of local resistance may be the beginning of the development of the next impulse in the composition of the medium-term corrective trend with the nearest significant target for 1,1560.
Inflation in the United States in December fell 0.1% month-on-month comparison, as expected. In November, by the way, it was zero. This was the weakest reading of consumer price index since March last year. In annual terms, inflation rose by 1.9% against 2.2% in November. Interestingly, excluding energy prices, the consumer price index rose in December by 0.2% m/m.
As for the mass “avoidance risks”, there all the same. Shutdown in the United States (the government shutdown) broke all records for duration. A number of agencies in the government not working for almost 24 days. Congress still has not agreed on funding the government, so officials can’t go back to work. Employees are on vacation at their own expense, and it is a very negative signal.
While the apparatus of the government will not return to full functioning, the dollar will still have a shot at strengthening. The argument, recall, is about the security because of the difficulties on the border with Mexico.