The dollar is likely to rise further

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Expect neutral opening of the Russian market against the background of mixed dynamics of futures on global stock indices. In the first place is reduced by 1% Asian indices because good data on the labor market in the United States – the growth of new jobs and wages at a stable low unemployment rate that, according to the futures rate of the Federal reserve, increases the chances of increasing the top rate twice this year to 2.25% in September-November and 2.5% in December.
This leads to a strengthening of the dollar index and hit the currencies of developing countries. This week will be published data on inflation in America and the beige book, which tells about the state of the economy in the 12 districts of the fed. If confirmed growth the dollar continues to strengthen against world currencies. This course of events may again trigger the exit of nonresidents from OFZ.
However, some Russian officials talked about the fact that the CBR would raise its key interest rate in the current environment are likely to increase the attractiveness of the ruble and investment in OFZ bonds. However, that will “hot money” that will come and go as soon as you get a speculative profit.
Viktor Veselov,
Chief analyst,