The dollar is falling against the ruble, but remains in an uptrend
The last time the American currency hands over positions – grows without the former enthusiasm, and falls more readily, though still in line with uptrend. The stabilization of the situation in emerging areas and opportunities for improvement of the atmosphere between the US and China, which are preparing to sit again at the negotiating table, undermining the dollar’s attractiveness as a protective asset.
On the other hand, fundamentally the USD continues to feed the topic of the divergence of the courses of monetary policy. Yesterday the representative of the fed’s Brainard gave a rather hawkish comments on the prospects of monetary policy, further tightening which it considers appropriate. Markets are already more than 60% put into the price of another two rate hikes this year and now wondering how many acts of tightening the regulator will be able to afford in 2019.
In the short term a risk factor for the dollar is finding a compromise in the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. However, to achieve sides will be difficult, given that America understands the situation and manipulates with threats, and China, albeit against trade wars, but still have not lost to the enemy nothing, answering mirrored arrangements to protectionism trump. So this factor will not soon leave the stage and be able to support the dollar.
Considering also that the pound is a “stimulus” as Brickset, and the Euro periodically showing concern about the situation in Italy, and both the Central Bank does not hurry with policy tightening, while the upward trend of the USD since the middle of April is not in danger.
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