The dollar in April, waiting for the Russian ruble

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Since the beginning of the year the Russian currency has strengthened its position as a fortress, all the forces trying to we spent less in exchange for dollars and euros.
However, one in the foreign exchange market is not a warrior, but because by the middle of March the strength to bite teeth every step of the ruble left. The month ends with the hopes of investors: loss in value particularly noticeable in relation to the U.S. dollar. Most likely, this situation will prevail in April: foreign currency have to buy more.
Let’s see, why did no one “came to help” the ruble.
Historically, the Russian currency very often gaining momentum since the second half of January and stops its growth just in March. Therefore, the current year is distracting from the trend only by the scope of reduction (the ruble gained this year by as much as 7%) and starting date: immediately after the Christmas holidays.
But, anyway, the upside potential has been exhausted, when in this month USDRUB was down below 64 and EURRUB below 72.50. It was minimum levels of currency to the rouble already in August and July. Now, the Russian currency has significant room to weaken. At the same time, around it persists (and even increases) the number of risks:
The Bank of Russia sets the markets at lower rates, which significantly cools the interest in the ruble as profitable asset;
In global markets, the growing tension, which requires increasing attention of regulators and enhances traction in protective assets;
The world economy is slowing down on all fronts, which hinders the growth of commodity prices;
The issue of anti-Russian sanctions sooner or later will emerge and, as in the previous year, it can happen in April.
In 2018 we saw how sharply the ruble would react to the sanctions: he was losing up to 10%. Such range of movement is able to force us to pay a dollar more 70ti. But even assuming such a sharp rise, USDRUB able to go into the area 68 (+6.2% to the current level of 64). Perhaps only after reaching those levels, it would be reasonable to say that the ruble began to seem unreasonably expensive considering the risks. Besides, in this area, we saw the strengthening of purchases of the Russian currency, as this time will be able to stem the retreat.
By the way, the slowdown in the global economy and tensions in the markets hurts not only the ruble, and Euro. Therefore, the growth EURRUB pair may not be as significant, having strengthened about 5%: it is not excluded that in April, one Euro will give 76.
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Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Analyst
FxPro