The dollar has many reasons for growth to the mark of 70 rubles
Stock Markets Group – As we have noted earlier, the situation for the ruble in the market develops not in the good way. In addition to the increase of oil, which supports short-term Russian currency, there is nothing more fundamentally important.
The high dollar is “satisfied” of the Russian economy, as economic growth remains weak, and external geopolitical factors do not give to relax the investors.
Today, the fed decides on the interest rate and the probability that the dollar will then receive a new impetus to growth is nearing 100%. However, this is not important, much more important than how many such increases the Federal reserve will hold until the end of the year.
Today the main risk for the national currency of the Russian Federation is the introduction of sanctions against BFL. Until recently, it supported the American currency and did not allow the ruble to rise. However, today we know that while the United States agreed to defer the matter, allowing the dollar to decline against the ruble.
But the agenda came two more questions that will make the ruble players to buy U.S. currency.
The dollar may rise to 70 rubles
Who will be Prime Minister?
After the elections in Russia and it is not clear who will manage the economy in the next six years. If this issue was not resolved before the presidential election, then the intrigue really is. In any case, this uncertainty will give the dollar a maneuver at the time of the adoption of the decision on the candidature.
Will lower if the Central Bank interest rate?
As we have noted, the government need a cheap ruble, it stimulates the domestic market, creating the appearance of well-being and success of governance. However, this immediately gives rise to inflation, which will hit the pockets of citizens.
If the regulator will reduce the interest rate to 7% this will create all conditions to ensure that the dollar rose to 70 rubles. Now you can watch how the Russian currency depreciates after the election, but such actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in a counterbalance to the decision of the U.S. Federal reserve could exacerbate the situation on the ruble market and derail the national currency.
At 17:00 GMT., the dollar on the Moscow exchange fell 0.05 cents, and the Euro on the contrary increased by 0.23%. We expect ruble-denominated assets will remain in limbo until the important decisions of regulators of the Russian Federation and the United States.
Stock Markets Group