The dollar has come To the fore in the price of oil and the “budget rule”
Instead of implementing all as the selection is grim forecasts for the December holidays, pochivshih ruble drop to 70+ for a dollar and above, the reality is once again screwed us all and shamed the hapless forecaster. But how much we and our colleagues made a mistake?
In fact, we have repeatedly stressed that the most important prerequisites for further sliding of the ruble in the abyss will be a further decline in oil prices and geopolitics – specifically, the risk of a repeat of the provocations in the Kerch Strait, which could (and we still claim that this is true) suddenly drop the domestic currency by 3% or more.
Meanwhile, over the past week with the start of the new year was important: most global investors have completely lost faith in what the fed in this situation would be able to fulfill their promises and to raise the key interest rate during the year. To date, the consensus forecast of the international analytical community will nominate only one (not three!) such action – and, most likely, it will happen not at the next meeting of the FOMC. As a consequence, the dollar bounced to most world currencies.
Compared with the December Index values of DXY dollar in district 97, today this value is only 95,48. In tandem with the Euro the greenback lost over the holidays about 1.15%, and the rate of EURUSD now is about 1,144. However, the Euro remains structurally weak, burdened with some difficulties folding the current program of “quantitative easing”, and for that reason much zeal up the “European” is not observed, and is unlikely to be viewed in the next six months.
As of 15:15 GMT the Russian ruble is still trading slightly above the 67 levels against the dollar and the level 76,81 in tandem with the Euro. Determining factors of the Russian currency at this stage are oil prices, as well as to clarify the position of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation regarding the possible resumption of buying of foreign currency in reserves of the Ministry of Finance, as reported twice in the end of last year with reference to the notorious “fiscal rule”.
“International Financial Center”