The dollar: Geopolitics and the expectation of the fed’s decision to keep the ruble in suspense

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Russian ruble retreats on Monday afternoon in a basket of currencies. The U.S. dollar is trading at 57,62 RUB and grows by 0.2%. Wednesday is 70.86 RUB (+0,3%). Official rates of the Central Bank of Russia for tomorrow, March 20, 57,55 make up a RUB for the American currency (the dollar increased by 6 cents) 70,60 and RUB over the European (Euro lowered 20 cents).
Oil prices remain in the red zone, but sales like cease. A barrel of North sea Brent costs $of 66.09 (-0,2%), the market closely follows the behavior of the us dollar and waiting for tomorrow publications on oil reserves and petroleum products. Friday’s statistics from Baker Hughes came out mixed: the growth in the number of drilling rigs in the country remained in force, but the rate of investors is not impressive.
The eve of the last presidential elections in Russia are not made on the behavior of the ruble absolutely no experience. The outcome was clear long before the election, and while for the bidders does not change anything. Some intrigue is the figure of the future Prime Minister, but the President will appoint only after the official inauguration, and the inauguration ceremony will be held in early may of 2018.
External background for the “Russians”, however, is not the most prosperous. Moscow is still in the stage of confrontation with London in the near future we can not exclude new sanctions against Russia. The behavior of the US dollar is now based on expectation of more aggressive than previously predicted, the rhetoric of the fed’s interest rate. Even these two points leave the ruble in sufficient tension. Today’s session for the pair dollar/rouble will be completed in the range 57,40-57,85 RUB, and Euro/rouble within the corridor 70,50-71,15 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari