The dollar can be supported by the fed
The U.S. Department of labor today published a very good report on the labor market and especially on the non-farm payrolls in October. Average hourly earnings in October rose by 3.1% yoy, as the market expected (a month earlier the growth rate of average hourly pay rates stood at 2.8% year-on-year). Unemployment in the United States continues to remain low, and in October, the level was 3.7% of the working population, as well as in September, which again coincided with expectations of analysts.
Thus, the American economy this fall, it became even closer to full employment (even in the summer, the figure was 3.9%). But data on the number of new jobs created in October outside the agricultural sector, gave a surprise on the market: new jobs in October were created 250 million, which is 31.5% higher than analysts ‘ expectations (190 thousand).
Compared with the September figure had more than doubled. American economists believe that the increase of 200 thousand jobs per month adds about 3% to the GDP of the United States, and in October the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by as much as 250 thousand, which will further contribute to the growth of the U.S. GDP. If only this optimistic figure subsequently will be revised and recalculated downward.
For the fed the labour market indicators and, in particular, the number of jobs outside agriculture are important when deciding about raising interest rates. Such strong statistics can coerce the open market Committee of the Federal reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting on 8 November. However, the foreign exchange market, it seems that this news did not seem to notice.
The US dollar continues to fall against the Euro, after the release statistics drop slightly slowed down, but still grinbek loses value of about 0.17%. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar virtually unchanged in price, and a basket of world currencies the dollar continues to fall, decreasing by 0.12%. It is likely that higher interest rates in the United States at this time may not have a negative impact on the world’s reserve currency, as this negativity is already “interrupted” trump’s statement that he is ready to compromise with China on the issue of foreign trade. The expected EUR/USD in the coming days 1.139-1.148$. for one Euro.
The Deputy Director of analytical Department,