The collapse of oil prices has not left the ruble chances

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The Russian stock market to the final weeks fell into melancholy and did not resist the pressure of “bears”. Index Mosberg remains within 2240-2275 points, but the overcoming of the lower border of the short hallway opens the sellers the way to 2200 points almost nonstop. The RTS index on Friday fell sharply due to currency fluctuations. The technical picture shows that after passage through the support 1120 points new sellers will be the turn of 1085 points.
Shares of “Mechel” appeared in the final week among the leaders of decline due to the weakening of the ruble. Mood swings in the foreign exchange sector continues to be highly vulnerable to the company due to the structure of its monetary assets. Technically, the paper “Mechel” are still within the “range” 106,36-116,30, so no breakdown of any of the boundaries of the corridor, the trend will not change. Worse the market today were shares of oil companies due to sales in the commodity sector, paper and telecoms.
The decision of the Central Bank’s key rate was neutral for the ruble, the indicator remained at the level of 7.25% per annum. In the current inflationary environment and against the background of what is happening in the economy of the Russian Federation the outcome of the June meeting is not surprising. However, the comments of the head of the CBR Elvira Nabiullina slowing down of transition to a neutral monetary policy has investors worried.
Which began after the collapse of oil prices has not left the ruble chances, and the Russian currency dropped in pairs with foreign. The US dollar by Friday evening, is in the vicinity of the boundary at 63.0 RUB break of this level and consolidation above will open the buyers pair dollar/ruble the road in the direction 63,50, i.e. to the upper limit of the medium-term trading range. In the end, it is high time to get around.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari