The Central Bank will not rush to raise rates
Inflation in January accelerated to 5%, but it coincides with a reasonable expectation of the Central Bank, which assumed the growth rate at 5-5. 5% at the beginning of the year. Moreover, there is still a small gap, which implies the omission of the regulator. If the rise in prices in January was significantly higher already at the January meeting, the Central Bank could raise rates. However, the current situation that does not involve. At least, we will hear that still needed to assess the dynamics of prices in February.
Other areas of responsibility of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation also has no reason to change monetary policy. OFZ auctions in the beginning of the year showed quite a substantial demand for bonds with short maturity and long. Do not forget that the ruble could strengthen this year even amid the withdrawal of additional funds from the deferred amounts for the purchase of currency under the budget rules. However, the base amount for these transactions was considerably lower than last year.
Accordingly, the pressure of inflation is still within the moderate scenario, the demand for OFZ high, the ruble does not need protection. Therefore, the probability of a tighter monetary policy can be considered low. Moreover, Central banks in emerging countries begin to expect more lenient policy due to weak inflation and cool the economy.
Now and Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly cut rates, while the Reserve Bank of Australia has stopped talking about a possible tightening. In New Zealand, unemployment began to rise, which may also force the regulator of the country to resort to incentives. It is likely that already by the end of this meeting, the CBR will formulate the conditions under which the regulator can return to lower rates.