The Central Bank will keep the ruble afloat
First Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva told the media that the financial regulator has a set of tools to make existing and anticipated US sanctions less painful. That this for tools, first Deputy Chairman of the CBR said.
Recall that during the crisis, 2014-2015 the Bank of Russia also used other measures aimed at stabilizing the banking sector. In particular, such measures include the introduction of a floating exchange rate. In the conditions of crisis and the simultaneous effect of sanctions imposed by the West against the largest Russian banks, a floating exchange rate has allowed the real sector of the Russian economy to develop internal incentives for stabilization, and, on the other hand, to limit the influence of speculative capital on the currency market, the ruble exchange rate and ultimately on the financial and banking system.
Turkey long enough adhered to the policy of a fixed exchange rate, but after the August collapse of the Lira, the Central Bank of that country had and the exchange rate to float freely start, and send huge amounts to stabilize the financial markets and the largest banks. So we agree that the Bank of Russia has already been seasoned with the crisis, has enough of effective tools and mechanisms to counteract the negative impact of sanctions. And does it not worse but something better than the Central banks of other developing countries.
You can, however, be noted that when the official representatives of the Russian Central Bank is talking about the stability of the banking sector means first of all stability of major banks, including banks with state capital. Small and medium-sized regional banks, the Central Bank withdraws licenses every week, therefore the number of banks in Russia is rapidly shrinking.
On the one hand, the smaller banking sector is weak and unviable credit institutions, the less weak links in the banking sector in General and the more resilient the banking system to external shocks. But, on the other hand, sanctions were more likely to be precisely the big banks, and a sharp reduction in the number of small regional banks can lead to restriction of competition in the market, and it also will not be the strength of our banking system.
The statement of the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the ruble has not yet responded. In the coming days to expected ruble to dollar RUB 65-66 per dollar, Euro 75-76 RUB for Euro.
The Deputy Director of analytical Department,