Stock market today does not show significant activity
Stock markets in the morning are fluctuating near the opening level, yesterday as positive momentum was not kept in the markets of USA. Oil came under pressure on fears of excessive production in the United States. All this is offset by a positive start of trading on the Russian market on Monday and caused the weakening of the ruble. The USD / RUB pair on Monday rose 22 cents to 56.88, despite the fact that in the beginning of the day concerned 56.50. EURRUB increased from 38 cents, once again above 70.
The rate of oil
Pressure on oil has contributed to a report on the increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States. Despite the fact that this growth was due to the gas installations in the markets, there are fears of a return in 2014, the year when active growth of production in the United States provoked a surplus of inventory. Strictly speaking, these fears are premature, as the oil reserves in the US is 18% below levels a year earlier, and gas reserves at the lowest in three years. However, the events of 3-4 years ago is still too fresh in the memory of investors, so the news about growth of stocks and/or production cause a negative reaction, albeit short-term.
A longer and wider response on the part of investors may cause today’s publication of statistics on inflation in USA in February. Expected acceleration of headline inflation to 2.2% yoy and maintaining baseline by 1.8% yoy. lower values will confirm Friday’s negative signal and is able to put pressure on the dollar. At this stage, the weak data on inflation in the US may be good news for the markets and bad for the dollar. Low inflation will reduce the chances that the fed will revise the plans to 4 increase from the current three. In turn, lower rates will put pressure on the us dollar and may spur demand for risk.