Step the dollar to 61 month.
Russian ruble on Thursday vigorously strengthened amid oil rally and a number of positive external drivers. The US dollar to the middle of the day is 62,04 RUB (-1,9%). The Euro is trading at RUB of 73.67 (-1,8%). Official rates of the Central Bank of Russia for tomorrow, may 11, 62,52 make up a RUB for the American currency and 74,17 RUB over the European. Both estimates revised lower to 48 and 87 cents, respectively.
The commodity market remains in the positive zone. Rally in crude oil is supported on all visible sides, from Iran and Venezuelan politics to statistical data on oil reserves in the United States. A barrel of North sea Brent oil rises in price on 0,15% and $should be placed at 77.30 – morning bullish revelry was seen much better. Apparently, maxima 3.5 years still need to be rolled back and review.
Oil in rubles, however, continues to update the records. The barrel is 4798 RUB, which is nice for the budget and smooths the effects of the April monetary storm for the economy and companies.
If oil is so expensive, then why not the ruble becomes stronger after it? In addition to the influence of the black gold, the exchange rate of the Russian currency depends on many factors, including geopolitics. Between may holidays, the inauguration of re-elected in March, President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, remained at his post of Prime Minister, although the markets wanted intrigue.
For foreign investors, saving the government the key figures in the field means that in the coming years in Russian politics, little will change in any direction – it could be a signal to the preservation of capital outflows. In addition, it is worth remembering that Russia is under sanctions, and the us just took a break in the development of this unpleasant story. Hence the lack of rally in the ruble pairs, although today’s motion is quite a pronounced.
Step if the dollar to 61. Maybe the technical picture of the auction allow this option, but this is unlikely to happen quickly and permanently. The US dollar closed today’s session in the range 61,90-62,75, the Euro finishes within 73,65-74,85 RUB.