Sanctions and oil prices will determine the exchange rate of the ruble in the near future

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Last night we were again faced with unmistakable after years of the fake attack on Russian assets, the Russian ruble and stocks. Resource “Of” wittily called this the “Morgan Stanley was stronger than Moody’s,” referring to the fact that the night before came out of two opposite tone of the news. On the one hand, after Moody’s raised sovereign rating of Russia last Friday in a logical manner raised the ratings from more than one and a half tens the largest Russian public companies.
On the other, investment Bank Morgan Stanley has published a short research note which stated that the Russian stock market rose for the year by 13%, and for this reason is expensive (we can argue, by comparing its investment multipliers with similar indicators for other markets).
Regarding quickly identified the main culprit of yesterday’s evening event, rumors about new sanctions. First, we must distinguish between sanctions and the introduction of new names in the restrictive lists are different things, although the Americans for their uniformity called “sanctions.”
These same sanctions is a legislative act that requires setting it on the first vote in the Lower house of the American Parliament (House of Representatives), which is now dominated by Republicans, then in a few days, the same bill (if it will be included in the agenda and not rejected, as happened in late December, when Senate Democrats simply refused to vote for bills the Republicans as long as the latter do not resume work by the government) or against him will vote for the senators of the Upper house (Senate), and then he slowly moves for signature on the Desk of Donald trump.
Last year they already tried to push through Congress sanctions bill against Russia. Then made a package titled “Act on the protection of U.S. security from the Kremlin’s aggression” (Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act, DASKA). The bill failed, and now its author from time to time complained, shaking the dust off it, trying again and again to remind of its existence.
The Senator from South Carolina Lindsey Graham, its main author, known as one of the most notorious and hyperactive senators, whose credo – to be constantly in the frame and someone to prove something. An analogue of Vladimir Zhirinovsky at the time of his youth (only with an opposite agenda) or, even closer, the current Ukrainian Deputy Oleg Lyashko – immediately apologize for the comparison, but they are necessary for a better understanding of the processes, as markets react to them is extremely painful.
At the time of the peak of trump’s battles with the Democrats over disagreements regarding the construction of the border wall with Mexico, Mr. Graham can’t quite get out of the frame various (and right-wing, centrist, and left-wing) American television and artistic catching up on external signs of anger attacks (who knows – have to agree that they have a Graham work perfectly), always ended his rants with the phrase “we can’t go on living!”
Because the risk of recurrence of the shutdown, the rush hour which begins tomorrow, February 15, still significantly decreased, bored Graham apparently decided that it is time again to remind you that he hates not just Mexican burritos, but also Russian pelmeni with vodka. That’s all yesterday’s story. Nothing new we have not seen, although the media noise was enough!
As a result, the ruble today is on an aggressive purchase, as this news has not passed our internal filter for accuracy, and oil, meanwhile, has $64,25 a barrel to Brent, although on Monday it was near $61/bbl. As of 12:45 GMT, the ruble was fixed at a high level 66,85 to the dollar, of course, hit “ceiling” of its medium-term trade corridor 65-66. However, energy is staging the sale on the eyes melts, so that the return of the ruble in the aforementioned range is now only a matter of a very short time.
Is not fake the only reason for concern is the situation with the new rule for the placement of OFZ. As you know, yesterday held two auctions under the new scheme, where the varied parameters are already two cut-off rate of return and the overall supply of securities. Placed the share of bonds at the auction with a great starting with a volume of more than 300 billion rubles, was less than 2%, which, in our view, undermines the image of these major Russian investors securities.
To avoid what happened with the cobras, the CBR, in our view, the Treasury should immediately announce a return to the old scheme, the placement of OFZ. Otherwise, if the market will feel that the regulator needs the funds “in unlimited amounts”, the more – the better, there is the risk that BFL will start strongly “push” in quotations, then it would not be desirable.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
“International Financial Center”