Sanctions against Russia sent the national debt minus

  • And
  • +A

Imposed sanctions, which led to the partial closure of foreign markets for the state, have caused the extremely cautious behaviour of the government desire always to have sufficient funds to cover their expenses. In fact, a major economic doctrine of the last years was stability, not growth of GDP: in the first six months of this year, GDP grew by only 0.7%.
In addition to the serious control of expenditure from the budget negatively on the economy impact of the increased taxes which were designed to help the state to accumulate funds for a “rainy day”. In the end, a large amount was withdrawn from the real sector: businesses lost the opportunity to develop and increase staff salaries.
External debt will continue to decline in the near future. We are witnessing the active withdrawal of capital from the country, most of which is used for payments on foreign loans. Previously, organizations had the opportunity perekreditovyvatsya and to renew the credit line indefinitely, but now the debts have to be repaid. It turns out that record levels of investment investors in the Russian debt assets almost completely kompensiruet withdrawal.
In addition, the government will continue to save money in the NWF, however, and this case, to imagine a possible scenario of development of economy is quite impossible. The Ministry of economic development predicts a decline in growth of consumer lending: in 2019 it should increase the demand of the population 1.7 trillion rubles, while in 2020 – only by 0.4 trillion roubles. At the moment lending is the main driver of GDP. Is expected to slow down external demand for Russian goods amid increased risks of global recession.
So, either the government will use savings for investment in the domestic economy or GDP will continue to grow at a minimum rate
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment