Russia’s GDP in 2018 increased by 2.3%… but it’s not exactly
Russia’s GDP in 2018, according to recent reports, increased by 2.3%. This is significantly higher than the most optimistic market forecast.
Data on the growth of the Russian economy in the past year has caused quite a controversy. The camp of the optimists screaming that the skeptics are just living on another planet and I see no signs of recovery in economic systems, proving his innocence of the underlying macroeconomic data. But here, surprised fantastically strong statistics. The camp of the moderate realist says that this single fact positive, and the global picture does not change, changing the “top” of Rosstat and canceling all last methodology. Who is right, as usual, time will tell, but in each of the views has its own merit.
First about optimism. Yes, the economy has grown, and since the data shows Rosstat, we will consider them only true, though not without claims. The country hosted the world Cup, it stimulated the services sector. Significantly increased freight transport, mostly by rail. Manufacturing industry has not reached the indicators of the construction sector, but who now looks to outsiders. The construction boom itself is mysterious as the depths of the ocean. Oil in rubles, beating records, and this “fountain” the state spent a lot of (currency, reserves, and not on the actual projects) because I didn’t worry about revenues.
And now for harsh reality. Statistics was the result of the allocation of individual macroeconomic indicators (construction) and lots and lots of questions – this time. The ruble weakened, being under sanctions. Due to the weak ruble, the country imported less and exported more – that’s three. This is net exports, reinforced with powerful growth in construction (“NOVATEK” and his project in West Siberia), and supported GDP, bringing it to the highs.
All of these arguments have a right to exist, they are equally fair. Critics agree on one thing: the enormous growth of the economy is an isolated fact positive, and its repetition should not count.
Senior analyst at information-analytical center,