Russia’s economy: In 2018, a possible rise in inflation to 4%

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Consumer surveys and evaluation of the scanned checks submitted by ROMIR, showed inflation, five times higher than the official reports of Rosstat. The difference lies, primarily, the methodology of calculation.
Rosstat takes into account the price increase of the product of the analogues, which is less than the increased the price. In an ideal model of the world Federal state statistics service, the buyer is not bound to specific brands and the outlets, he went for the buckwheat, which is the least added value.
Misrepresentation of actual inflation lies in another type of evaluation based on the evaluation of buyers. Respondents always tend to overstate their sense of prices and expectations. Buyers difficult to assess the dynamics of the prices of cars, refrigerators and similar large purchases that occur very rarely but have a significant weight in the structure of expenditures. In fact, durable goods in hard currency prone to deflation, and their ruble prices very often repeat the dynamics of the course.
For example, in Britain, where Central Bank more than 20 years, adhere to inflation targeting, official inflation was on average 2.0%, however, the British inflation was one and a half times higher, averaging 3.0%. It is likely that we will ever get official inflation below consumer experiences and results sent checks.
Methodology survey ROMIR seems closer to the truth than the previous two methods. Here too there are disadvantages that come due to irregular large purchases.
For 2017 the General trend in Russia was on the inhibition of growth of prices, which surprised even the CBR. Now population surveys and data ROMIR indicate the acceleration of price growth.
The CBR, in the second half of 2018 expect acceleration of inflation, as the flip side of economic growth is often an increase in inflation. The impressive growth of credit and the collapse of interest rates on Bank deposits additionally strengthen inflationary pressures. Probably in the coming months inflation will accelerate, returning to the area to 4% and may exceed this mark.
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Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Financial analyst,
FxPro