Russian economy in 2019 will grow by 1.8%

  • And
  • +A

The growth of Russia’s GDP in 2019 will amount to 1.8%, according to analysts of IMF, which exceeds the underlying macroeconomic forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Support the Russian economy needs to have oil prices and rising domestic demand. The growth forecast of the economy in 2018 remained the same and amounted to 1.7%.
We agree in principle with the IMF. Our target even more optimistic – 2%. From our point of view, economic growth could be higher if not for the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which on the background of growth of inflation up to 5% we see at the level of 8%. We also believe that the complex geopolitical situation and the lack of domestic political risks will promote the return of Russian capital from abroad.
Through the efforts of various experts of the left wing of the IMF developed in Russia is almost “Woland”, which is responsible for everything from the social impact of economic reforms of the 90s up to the recent pension reform. In fact it is, to say the least, not exactly. In the early 90’s, for example, the IMF was against the privatization of the Russian oil and gas sector. In the opinion of the Fund, the government should leave the natural rent in the Treasury, to mitigate the social consequences of the reforms. However, the then Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin insisted on the opposite.
Indeed, the leadership of the IMF you will never find expert socialist views, and in some cases the IMF does the political will of its controlling shareholder – the US. However, no one is forcing sovereign countries to take the IMF loans to the same expert assessment of the Fund and its recommendations can hardly be accused of incompetence.
______________
Alexander Razuvayev,
The Director of analytical Department,
Alpari