Ruble to cope with external negative

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At the beginning of the trading week the ruble kept relatively well, but the lack of strong interest to risk gradually increases the pressure on the Russian currency in the first half of the session on Tuesday. The dollar had earlier rebounded from support at the 200-day moving average, back above 66 RUB and testing area 66,30 RUB, strengthened since the beginning of the day by 0.25%.
The broader picture shows that the ruble is worthy to cope with external pressure, partly due to the tax period in Russia, which is nearing completion. In terms of dominant evasion from risky assets in the best case, our currency will show stability under the condition that the oil would not develop bearish momentum in the near future.
Now all asset classes are closely watching the developments on the trade front, which point to further escalation of the conflict between the two largest economies, despite all the talk about the resumption of negotiations. In such circumstances, the dollar is in demand, and vysokoporodnyh, including the ruble losing ground. Additional negative on emerging platforms bring increasing concerns about recession, the risks of which indicates inversion of the yield curve in the United States.
In the short term, the dollar/ruble is likely to fixate over the level of 66 rubles., and in the event of a resumption of sales on the oil market can exceed 66,40 RUB, although until the completion of the tax period the upward pressure on us currency will be restrained.
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment