Ruble: Three important events today which will affect the rate

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Over the past two weeks the volatility of the ruble fell, the pair dollar/ruble has stabilized in the range of 65-67 RUB Factors in favor of strengthening (high oil prices, the lack of news on sanctions, the beginning of the tax period next week) and weakening (weakness of the currencies of developing countries, the growth of yield US Treasures, falling OFZ) Russian currency balance each other. Today is going to RUB a rich from the point of view of a news background and it will be important for the dynamics in the medium term.
First, at 12:30 GMT will be held the speech of the Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina in the state Duma. Traditionally, the attention will be focused on the wording about the current state of the economy and future monetary policy – market participants will try to understand when you need to wait for the next rate hike. Secondly, at 16:00 Rosstat will publish statistics on consumer price index for September. Inflation is an important factor for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation when making decisions. Higher inflation may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy.
The Central event of the day – re-arrangement of the Ministry of Finance 3-year OFZ-25083 5 billion rubles Recall, last week to place him failed due to insufficient demand. Note that the index MOEX government bond RGBI declining five days in a row – this is a negative signal. It is also significant yesterday’s low demand placement of a new bond issue of Rosselkhozbank. Certainly, before the present location of the Ministry of Finance “feel” the market and reached preliminary agreements with buyers.
It is possible that he has offered more favorable conditions for profitability. We expect that today BFL-25083 to be able to accommodate the volume low. After all, if the placement will not take place, it is unclear why the Ministry of Finance came back with this release on the market, and this would indicate a very low demand for Russian assets, but it is very negative psychological message to the market. According to estimates Alpari, the rouble has potential to strengthen, immediate goal for the pair dollar/ruble is located at the level 65.5 rubles, and Euro/ruble at the level of 75.5 RUB.
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Roman Tkachuk,
Senior analyst,
Alpari