Ruble: the Risk of a further drop is increasing

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On Thursday, the ruble opened up a gap, returning the dollar to the level near the key 65 RUB after yesterday’s push to new highs in the area 65,60 rbl. the Drop in oil prices has stopped, which, coupled with the decline of the dollar on the Forex market has eased the pressure on our currency. However, the broader picture shows that downside risks for the ruble increase.
Oil bounced off fresh lows this year, but has not taken a clear growth attempts, which is unsurprising given the continuing tensions over trade war and frankly yesterday’s bearish report of US Department of energy, which reflected unexpected growth of stocks of oil and oil products, as well as pointed out the recovery of oil shale mining.
Today the flight from risk has subsided, largely decent data import and export in China. But the overall situation remains tense, and the risks associated with the trading conflict between the USA and China, remains high. Investors have less trust in the transaction and are increasingly wary of the recession.
This picture definitely does not play in favor of the assets of the developing segment, including the ruble, and so in the medium term – at least until the September negotiations between Washington and Beijing “Russian” will remain vulnerable, and if the sale on world markets will become even more aggressive scale, even the tax period in the second half of August won’t help the ruble.
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment