Ruble strengthens tax period and oil

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The Russian ruble on Tuesday afternoon remains in a strong position in a basket of currencies, but the farther, the more confidence that this is a local fluctuation of moods. Now in favor of the ruble is a factor of the tax period, but it short. In addition, the Russian currency helps expensive oil, which is trying again to storm peaks for months, but so far ineffective. On the side of the dollar is a big block of basic catalysts, moreover, we cannot ignore the steps of the U.S. Treasury on the absorption of dollar liquidity.
As a result, by mid-afternoon the dollar traded at RUB of 61.37 (-0.4 per cent). € 72.50 per person is RUB (-0,1%). Official rates of the Central Bank of Russia for tomorrow, may 23, 61,26 make up a RUB for the American currency and 72,23 RUB for Euro. Both estimates revised lower by 127 and 10 cents respectively.
The oil market is held in the positive and not lose hope in the storm at $80 per barrel Brent. While a barrel of North sea oil costs $79,49 (+0,3%), but there is still a publication of the American petroleum Institute statistics on energy reserves last week. Average expectations of experts, the data of which is obtained on the basis of the survey results by Bloomberg, indicate a decrease in stocks of oil at 2 million barrels. If the statistics will be better than expected and show a decline deeper than demonstrate the expectations of experts, the barrel can safely go up.
We should not overestimate the strengthening of the ruble in the moment. It is doubtful that it will be able to develop into a full-fledged trend, given the measures for raising capital that take USA. Expensive ruble and now I do not need the internal market, especially to the agricultural season.
The US dollar closed trading Tuesday at borders 61,10-of 62.00, the Euro finishes within 72,35-of 73.00 RUB.
Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,