Ruble: September will be a difficult month

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Several factors will affect the pricing. In the last days of August, the ruble is “on vacation” from volatility. However, in September the U.S. Congress comes with a 5-week vacation. Most likely, Board members will return full of energy and ideas. Considering that before the November election soon – surely now will show strong performance and great traction to the discussion of sanctions. Even before this break in the project were the documents that the new wave can flash at the beginning of autumn.
27 entered into force on the first part of the sanctions on the “case Skrypalia”. The second part while the White house has not provided the Kremlin. And after all, this announcement has a significant impact on the ruble. Also important is whether the second part of the reference debt securities of Russia. Yet the US we only saw how the idea of a ban on investment in Russian debt. If the idea still grow into a bill on the ruble will be affected negatively.
Has also subsided theme “Northern stream-2”. The US threatened to impose sanctions against all participants in the construction. But not everything here depends on two sides – still in construction involved and European companies. While Angela Merkel is willing to work to create the pipeline, however, we have seen six months ago, as Europe was initially against the sanctions, and then very quickly imposed restrictions against Russia. Already have a European company that in case of a threat from the United States might withdraw from the project pipeline.
It’s a German energy concern Uniper. This was stated by Finance Director Christopher Delbrück, speaking to reporters in Frankfurt am main. The leadership of Europe comments is not given. This issue is very sensitive and even in the event of doubt on the part of Europe at the last minute it may as well be hit hard.
Given that the ruble after the announcement of sanctions is weak in 5 rubles, with the active work in September of the United States Congress we can see the breakout of the psychological level of 70 and 80 rubles against the dollar and the Euro respectively. And it may indicate the future path 80 to the dollar and 90 rubles per Euro. Of course, a single movement such markets, we do not see.
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Ekaterina Tumanova,
The head of the analytical Department of the company,
Finist