Ruble: Russian Central Bank may keep interest rate
This coming Friday will be a meeting of the Bank of Russia, which will be a traditional interest rate decision. From our point of view, the key rate will remain unchanged at 7.5%.
Financial markets are stable, but the situation in the real sector of the economy is not good. GDP growth and industrial production is 1-2%. Weak economic growth is likely to remain the main problem of the government and monetary authorities.
However, theoretically, there is another possible scenario.
We have already noted that at the end of October waiting for the destabilization of the situation on the world stock market, this would have an impact and emerging-market currencies including the Russian ruble. The stock market in Russia has little effect on consumer confidence, but the exchange rate question, including the political. In the case of a crisis, the Central Bank may raise rates, as we have repeatedly seen.
The Director of analytical Department,