Ruble: next week rate threatens nothing

  • And
  • +A

Thursday, October 11, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” fell by 65 kopecks (-0,93%) to 66,27 Euro and by 24 kopecks (-0,31%), to RUB 76,81
The ruble continues to surprise market participants in their response to the external background: up 60 cents, 60 cents down. A barrel of oil grade Brent fell by 3.2% and the ruble rose against the dollar by 0.93%, Euro – 0.31% Full recorrelate with the oil market. The strengthening of the ruble contributed to the weakening of the us dollar and the positive dynamics of emerging markets currencies.
The dollar index increased the drop after the publication of inflation data in the United States. The growth rate of consumer inflation was weaker than market expectations both in annual and in monthly terms. The market reacted to its deceleration, as the downward trend may force the fed to reconsider the forecast on the number of raises in 2019. It is also worth noting that the ruble has ignored the decline in yields on 10-year US bonds and the index RGBI on 0,21%.
On Friday, October 12, the price of Brent rose by 0.77% to $80,78 per barrel. Upward correction in oil, coupled with a weaker dollar unable to strengthen the position of buyers of the ruble today.
Still set on the pair dollar/ruble in the area of 65,50 € If on the way to it will not be a lot of buyers, in this case, we expect a hike under the level of 65 rubles. the ruble is considered in the framework of the corrective movement to growth with 61,63 70,66 RUB to RUB in EUR/RUB, support is at the level of 75,20 RUB.
____________
Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari