Ruble: Investors are afraid to get out of the dollar and the Euro

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Most analysts recently rarely pay any significant attention to the macro statistics from the Eurozone and, especially, Japan. The market usually reacts sluggishly, and from the point of view of trading ideas there is not much draw. Nevertheless, today’s data on Germany, published almost simultaneously with the same sensational music video of Rammstein, it was impossible not to notice. In the middle of populism and the trade wars, the German economy shows miracles of stability.
With the decline of import prices (maybe so you can understand the origin of yesterday is no less mysterious than the infamous Mona Lisa, Leonardo da Vinci, smiles Angela Merkel met with Chinese leader XI Cznhjna in Paris) retail sales in February in annual terms, jumped by 4.7% versus the consensus estimate of 2.8%. Let’s see what it will say today’s publication of the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the United States.
We will remind that the President of France Emmanuel macron has invited EU leaders Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Juncker to join him in Paris for the “expression of the single European opinion” is relative, apparently, the intensification of mutual cooperation against the background of its cooling with the United States because of “trade wars”.
Interesting coincidence, but the Index of leading economic indicators from KOF for March also came out significantly better than expected, at 97.4 against the forecast of 93.9. All of this points to the likely divergence between the economic trends of the New and the Old world – because in the first case still clearly recently shown signs of a recession (to take at least notorious history with the inversion of the yield curve of Treasury bonds!) hasn’t gone anywhere. At least for the moment.
Meanwhile, Donald trump continues to be busy mainly domestic agenda and after the favourable results of the investigation “negovora with nerissia” with a running involved in the race, appearing before a crowd of thousands of his constituents in the city of Grand rapids, Michigan, is once again promising to “dry up the swamp in Washington” and called its adherents representatives of the “real elite”. It seems that the US in the coming months and couple of years, in fact, be obsessed with their most pressing internal issues. For the rest of the world this is a very boring scenario.
As for the ruble, then in a situation of actual absence of internal and external factors of influence (obviously, the lack of short duration, because, for example, election day in Ukraine are already on the nose) the main pressure was exerted on him banal way instantiable human fears, ie people are just “afraid” to get out of dollars and euros, though since January, their foreign exchange savings in terms of rubles already “melted” more than 5%, which is higher than dollar Deposit rates at any Bank in Russia.
Actually, the fact that the strengthening of the ruble is accompanied by the growth of trade volumes, and on the contrary, it says that “the game against the ruble” in a given period of time (not at all) – the a priori occupation ungrateful. As of 12:30 GMT, the domestic currency traded with minimal changes per day at levels of 64.72 against the dollar and the Euro 72,66.
Repeat the important point of our yesterday’s monetary review: the mark of 65 rubles to the dollar still looks impenetrable. As expected, once it has been reached during yesterday’s trading in the second half of the day because suddenly weathered volumes had a spontaneous reversal, and the rouble began to strengthen in the U.S. session on the cross-rate simply out of inertia.
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Vladimir Rojankovski,
LIFA,
The expert “International financial centre”