Ruble: Inflation, falling oil prices and a strong dollar that will happen

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Russian ruble on Monday afternoon, trading in pairs of foreign currencies with a minimum of deviation. The US dollar to date is 62,94 RUB and rises by less than 0.1%. Symbolically dropping the Euro and is trading at 73,29 RUB Official rate of the CBRF for tomorrow, June 26, 62,94 make up a RUB for the American currency and 73,31 RUB for Euro. Both estimates revised lower by 29 and 41 kopecks, respectively.
The commodity market continues to storm, which is quite natural considering the decision of the OPEC+ and the complexity of understanding by investors of the near future in oil production. A barrel of North sea Brent crude falling almost 2% and is estimated at $74,19, a barrel of Texas light oil WTI costs $68,48 (-0,2%). The ruble does not respond to changing market conditions in the oil – apparently, investors wait until the prices will be excluded the emotional component.
The Russian currency is still held in support of the Russian Federation the tax period is the final one this semester. As soon as the demand for rubles in the framework in the internal market begins to fade, the domestic currency will be under strong external pressure. Continue in force factor in inflation, from 1 July the country index tariffs for housing and communal services that will accelerate the growth rate of the consumer price index. The local acceleration of inflation, a strong dollar, falling oil prices will cover for the ruble are other glimmers of optimism.
The US dollar will finish today within 62,80-63,25 rubles., the Euro closed last Monday in June within the borders 73,10-is 73.55 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari