Ruble: Further growth experts say, is unlikely

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After the rally on Tuesday, during which the dollar has fallen under the mark of 65 rubles from multi-month highs in the area 65,83 RUB, ruble retreats in the framework of technical correction. On the eve of the risky assets, a wave of growth on the reports that trump has decided to postpone the introduction of 10%-nykh of tariffs on Chinese imports from September 1 to December 15. The hopes of warmer relations between the two countries increased the attractiveness of assets in the developing segment, including the ruble.
The prospects of the decline of tension between Washington and Beijing, in fact, beneficial for higher-yielding assets. But while this is not enough to run a full and sustained rally. The fact that investors do not forget about the unpredictability of the us President, who may at any moment again to toughen rhetoric. In addition, investors keep worrying economic signals. By the way, last month Chinese industrial production growth slowed to 17-year lows and Germany’s economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter, raising concerns of a recession.
In these circumstances, further growth of the ruble and oil is unlikely. However, with the onset of the tax period, which starts tomorrow, the downward pressure on the Russian currency will be weakened and if oil prices do not return to recession in the short term, the pair dollar/ruble is consolidating near the level of 65 rubles.
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment