Ruble falls under pressure of geopolitics and the failed auction of OFZ

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The Russian ruble continues to retreat in a basket of currencies. The US dollar to date is 66,36 RUB and getting more expensive by 0.8%, the Euro rises by 0.9% and is trading at 76,29 RUB Courses, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Friday, October 5, again increased and are 66,21 RUB per U.S. dollar (+79 cents) and RUB over the of 76.05 euros (+32 cents).
Despite high oil prices – Brent crude hit a new four-year peaks – the ruble is losing ground. All exactly as I explained yesterday quite aggressive government rhetoric in the geopolitical question worked simultaneously with the disastrous auction of the Ministry of Finance on placement of OFZ. Demand for Russian debt is not too highly appreciated by the investors risks. And they have that right, because Russia is under sanctions, and change of the vector in this plan and never will be.
Commodity market, meanwhile, konsolidiruyutsya near new highs. A barrel of North sea raw materials traded at $86,11 (-0,2%), as decreases in the price of a barrel of Texas light oil WTI ($76,25). The last jump up in oil seemed illogical given the whole range of news and statistics. But who said that the market is full of intraday speculators can be logical? Statistical data from the US Department of energy confirmed the growth of oil reserves at a record pace by 8 million barrels in the week, which is 6 times higher than expected. Against this background, oil prices would have to retreat, but this did not happen. Without attention bidders left and the information on preparedness, according to unofficial conversations, to increase daily production.
However, while oil is expensive, the potential for the weakening of the ruble is still limited: you can’t argue the price of black gold has value for the commodity currencies. It is possible that the dollar will stop near resistance at around 66,50 RUB Today’s session for the pair dollar/ruble will be closed in the range 66,20-of 66.65 RUB, and Euro/ruble – 76,10-76.55 per RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari