Ruble: Before stability is still far away

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On Wednesday, the ruble has allowed himself to partially recover previous losses using a combination of favorable factors. The dollar, which opened with a bearish gap, accelerated the fall during the evening session and retreated around 62 RUB, down 0.74%. Euro/ruble sank slightly due to a sharp strengthening of the single currency in the international arena.
The market has formed a combination of local factors, which pushed the Russian currency up. First of all it is almost universal correction of the dollar, which had not justified the forecasts data on GDP and employment in the private sector. Also, the market participants cheered the results of the auction of Finance, where demand doubled the offer, showing that the interest to the Russian papers remains, despite the tension on the sanctions front. In the second half of the day additional support came from the oil market, where OPEC has reassured the markets with their positive comments regarding changes to the terms of the transaction.
General nervousness in global markets, linked with the Italian crisis, slept. The ruble as a risky asset felt the mood. However, the situation is far from resolved, and the dollar may resume growth until the end of the week if data on personal consumption expenditures and labor market – today and tomorrow – will reflect the growth. So the ruble is still early to celebrate, especially because the issue of sanctions remains quite acute. By the way, yesterday the Federation Council approved the law on counter. In the short term, the pair dollar/ruble may try to test level 62 RUB, however, even in the case of care below until the end of the week, probably the quotes will be back.
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Igor Kovalyov,
Analyst
InstaForex companies group