Rouble and oil price again move in tandem

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Today is the day of the big macroeconomic statistics. In addition to the traditional formal publication of data on stocks of oil and oil products from the US Department of energy, the importance of which increases many times in the light of yesterday’s unexpectedly strong jump in oil prices, will draw our attention, inflation figures and trade balance in the United States under the code phrase “that’s all we need to know.” Himself the American President will probably nevezetesen to find out what happened in the U.S. economy during the January shutdown – at least in order to figure out if you need to repeat it again (recall that in this case, the “x-hour” comes 15th.
In the daytime, from 12:30 GMT, a giant block of similar releases will be released in the UK, which is also important in its own way, given that the deadline orderly Brexit’ and is still listed as 29 March In the Euro area and the individual constituent countries, data on industrial production also will not pass as European currencies and indices lately are under increased pressure, and the forecasts for slower growth in the Old world, go one darker the other. Italy and France – the focus of particular attention.
What happened yesterday with the oil, which, as it seemed for a long time “glued” to the levels of 60-61 per barrel for Brent? Saudi Arabia has scared off speculators optional “unprecedented” (fashionable word) reduction of mining quota of 600 thousand barrels or more, “depending on market conditions”. Oil traders trading in the physical raw materials are not terribly fond of lately to hear about the lack of real contracts. Guarantee physical supply of “black gold” – it’s all in our time of “great luxury” as more and more countries-oil exporters – Iraq, Iran, Libya, Venezuela – for one reason or another have lost the required assurances of supply.
That is, the oil market more and more as becomes schizophrenic: on the one hand, politically engaged optionscity trying to create the illusion of abundance of energy, whereas on the physical market contracts prevail growing confusion and uncertainty. In the end Brent yesterday, immediately after publicized by the Western media phrase of the Saudis, have soared by almost $2.5 to $of 63.30 per barrel (as of 12:45 GMT). The technical picture promises a continuation of the rally in the short term with the first transfer station at $65.
Meanwhile, the rate of the domestic currency has not yet reacted to the news by offering speculators enough time to think before opening long positions. As of 13:00 MSK in tandem with the dollar, the Russian ruble is trading at the level of 65.72, continuing to aerate the already plowed pretty trade corridor 65-66 rubles per dollar.
In tandem with the Euro, the domestic currency is trading at 74,43 rubles for a single unit little giving ground, compared to yesterday’s value of 74, but technically not offering any ideas for any lasting change of the trend weakening. The Eurozone is gripped by problems from the growing budget and political crisis in Italy, continued to the third month of fierce clashes between the demonstrators and the “orange vests” in France.
In the segment of precious metals although gold is marking time at $1316/oz, “Russian metal” palladium resumed its vigorous rally, gaining for the past day nearly 2.5% to a historical high of $1386 per ounce, continuing to renew the status of palladium as the best investment in 2018 in 2019-th year.
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Vladimir Rojankovski,
Expert
“International Financial Center”