Privatization of Gazprom at the expense of pensions
Despite the fact that the situation of high oil prices and cheap ruble will bring the budget up to the end of the year more than 2.5 trillion rubles, the Russian government decided on a pension reform, a bit softening it. From our point of view, it would be nice to implement more pensioners single payment of large sums.
At the same time, the Russian government faces the fundamental challenge of reducing the state’s share in the economy, which is now about 70%. From our point of view, these two tasks should reconcile.
Privatization of the oil sector in the current situation is the best choice. And we have to act boldly and decisively, as said Anatoly Chubais. No, no one is going to relinquish control of the government, Gazprom, Rosneft or Transneft. Currency capitalization of “Gazprom oil” is now about $23 billion Cash position “Surgutneftegaz” – $44 billion Gazprom may sell its oil daughter “Surgut”.
In this case, the extraction of the merged company will amount to 150 million tons of oil per year. The proceeds from the sale of “Surgutneftegaz” after taxes and financing its investment programs, Gazprom may pay dividends, in this case, the budget will receive about half the amount that can be immediately directed to the pension Fund for one-off payments to pensioners.
Of course, the question remains whether to leave “Surgutneftegas” free float or buy the company completely. Now a share “Gazprom” in the capital “Gazprom oil” is about 96%.
The market actually does not take into account cash position “Surgut” in the company. And following this transaction it is possible to expect growth of quotations as preferred and common securities. Of course, after the transaction, the financial result of “Surgut” will be more resistant to exchange rate fluctuations.
So in conclusion it is worth saying that after the deal, of course, the question arises Slavneft’s assets which also may redeem at this time “Rosneft” “Surgutneftegaz”.
The Director of analytical Department,